President Obama's State of the Union message over a week ago only served to reinforce my forecast that investors will continue to find better returns in markets outside America and in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Indeed, the reward gap may well increase.

Nothing in the President's speech indicated willingness to do the hard work of cutting spending. Rather, he reiterated his commitment to a costly new healthcare entitlement and more spending on make-work programs. Only days later, his budget acknowledged that, even before factoring in the cost of his proposals, the federal government is unlikely to be in surplus for the foreseeable future. In response, Moody's has issued a warning that the United States' triple-A credit rating is not unassailable. In short, the trend set some ten years ago will continue.

A nervous market nevertheless finished nearly flat with the S&P 500 (SPY) lower for a fourth consecutive week by just -0.7% and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) higher by +0.4%. However, at one point before Friday's last hour rebound, the VIX had run up +30% from earlier in the week and the S&P 500 had tagged its 200-day exponential moving average for a near "official" correction of -9.2% off its January highs. This action had the Market Rewind ETF rotation models seeking safety for the first time since the 2009 March lows.

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary)

S&P 500 (SPY) -3.1%

EEM (emerging mkts) -4.5%

EFA (developed markets) -4%