Up until a few months ago, many analysts were predicting the demise of the US dollar to be replaced by the euro as the new global reserve currency. Well, one huge Greek debt crisis later, and many are questioning the long term viability of the euro. My personal opinion continues to be that by the year 2020 we will not recognize the euro in its current form.

The Devil Is in the Details

I hadn't seen an advance release of the January German export data, when I wrote the following on Tuesday, "honest injun" I hadn't:

Well, this is only a hypothesis. But if the hypothesis has any validity we should be able to make some predictions on the basis of it. I would make two. Firstly, since East Europe’s economies are often dependent for their growth on exports to the West, and in particular to Germany, then we should be able to see some “shadow” of this German process cast out into the East.