Gary Gordon submits: If you’re one of those folks who believes in the concept of a “regression to the mean,” then you had a rationale in 2008 for why Dow 14000 would crater below Dow 10000. Similarly, you had reason to expect that stocks with P/Es above 20 would eventually work their way back to long-term averages of 16.
What you rarely heard, however, was a term to describe the opposite phenomenon. In other words, when the Dow fell to 6500… when P/Es were in the single digits by March of 2009… why weren’t the same folks talking about a “PROgression” back to the mean?
Complete Story »