Markets seem to be waiting for some type of catalyst to determine the direction of the next leg. It was an inside day in Crude oil as prices hover around $82/barrel. For new entries we still like the idea of $5 put spreads, but we would start looking at the June as opposed to May contract. If currently in the May, we would try to buy back the bottom leg; we have suggested for clients to buy back their $70 puts and that would leave them long the $75 puts. It was a disappointing day for longs in natural gas as yesterday could prove to be just a head fake. Clients remain long via April futures and June call spreads as prices were off 2.4% today.

As of this post, indices are at the high of the day; we think we are close to an inflection point but we’ve been wrong for the past two weeks. If the S&P closes above 1148, exit short futures at a loss. It's been a fourth consecutive down day in sugar but we are assuming yesterday’s low at 18.82 in May will serve as support. May cotton has lost 3.8% in the last 5 session and closed below the 20 day moving average for the first time since February 8th. We are expecting another 2-4 cents and will then be advising clients to lift shorts.

If the bull story about the loonie was in book form, it would be on the best seller list.

But despite all the sponsorship and accolades from the pundits, this pair has been unable to challenge the season's best for the C$ versus the USD of 1.0204 established on October 15, 2009. The pair did trade at 1.0214 on Wednesday, good enough for the red ribbon, but then retreated back above the 1.03 handle. What is interesting about yesterday's trade is that the open interest in the futures market went up almost 12,000 contracts, over 7% of the total open interest.

Ahead of another heavy U.S. Treasury auction, with today the turn of the 30-year maturity, dealers have sold bonds ahead of time bowing to slightly more favorable economic data. Strong industrial production, retail sales and bank lending data emerging overnight from the Chinese economy coupled to a report indicating a rise in its inflationary pressures, also helped pressure global bond prices lower in turn lifting yields. The distant stench of a possible Greek sovereign debt default also prompted some investors to ditch the safety of German bunds at midday in Frankfurt causing a lurch lower in prices.