China has beaten expectations once again. China's exports jumped 45.7 percent in February, compared to the same month a year ago, to $94.5 billion. That’s up sharply from January’s 21 percent rise.

It was all looking like an orthodox drift higher in equity markets last night until the SPX rolled over in a late-session swoon, perhaps on rumors that the government would flog out its considerable holding in Citigroup (C)? Regardless, Macro Man's Bloomberg inbox lit up with comments on the heavy futures selling, driving the 7 point reversal ... perhaps this is a sign of the top?

Uh ... ok. We'll disregard the fact that in the context of the past couple of years, a 70 bp move in the index, within half an hour, constitutes more of a "baby's hiccup" than a reversal. No, what made Macro Man laugh was the commentary on the "heavy futures selling." Perhaps there was a large order or two that went through ... but even so, aggregate end-of-session volume was utterly unremarkable by the standards of the past couple of weeks- which themselves haven't exactly been a hotbed of activity. If you've found yourself musing that equity markets haven't been particularly interesting recently, perhaps this is an example of why.
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China reported stronger export and import figures for February than expected, with the net result of a smaller than expected trade surplus.

In fact, February's trade surplus of $7.6 bln is the smallest in a year and a bit more than half of the January surplus. This is consistent, however, with an under-appreciated development that we think is important.