Kelvin Schulle submits:The Solar Energy market experienced a roller coaster ride in the last six months, mainly because of the policy uncertainty from Germany. Although the German market is only 40% of the global market (probably less than 40% due to the growing shares from China, Japan and the USA), Wall Street analysts seem to only focus on Germany. The media sometimes also contributes to the speculation. When the German government discussed a likely cut to its FIT program. Reuters came out with a much larger cut even before any announcement from the government. That scared investors and caused a 35% hair cut in one week. However the latest report from German local newspapers is that the cut will likely be a much smaller percentage and delayed to September to give enough time for the market to respond, and policy exists to avoid any setback for the industry. While the original Reuters report sounded like the government wanted to kill the industry, there are many new developments lately signaling a strong global demand in Solar energy. Here are some:
1. FIT cut in Germany likely small and pushed to September
The ruling parties in Germany are facing tough protest ahead of the FIT modification. Recent polls show 83 percent of voters of the CDU and CSU are against the cut, while 88 percent of SPD voters are against the cut. The worry of losing the upcoming election likely results in a much smaller cut than the Reuters report. This explains why PV makers kept inking contracts in Germany, such as when Trina Solar (TSL) signed a 80MW deal with ITEC and AE Photonics. Maybe the high quality of Trina Solar's panels helped to win market share, but German demand is stronger than many expected.
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