AAII submits: The first estimate of second-quarter GDP growth will be published today, Friday morning. Bloomberg's consensus forecast calls for the U.S. economy to have expanded at a 2.5% pace. The actual reported number will be revised in subsequent reports from the Commerce Department. (First-quarter GDP was 2.7%.)
Many forecasts for the second half of the year call for more of the same. For instance, T. Rowe Price anticipates the economy will expand at a 2.8% rate in the third quarter and a 2.7% rate in the fourth quarter. As you are well aware, there are concerns that the downside risks could make current forecasts too optimistic. The Federal Reserve used the words "slow," "slowly," or "slowed" six times in the abstract of its Beige Book report Wednesday. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher predicted in a speech yesterday that U.S. economic growth will be below 3% "for a prolonged period."
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