Chris Ciovacco submits: Every time a major stock index approaches a new high, invariably we can find calls that "a major top has already been made". We have seen several such articles in recent weeks. While these incessant calls for a major top may be 100% accurate at the present time, a review of historical major tops gives little support for such a claim. A short-term top within a major bull market can occur at any time, but major tops do not occur very often.
Fundamentals Are Improving: We also have to consider improving fundamentals when constructing a case for a major top in stocks or the lack thereof. Thursday’s unemployment report came in better than expected, but more importantly the four-week moving average of jobless claims dropped to its lowest level in almost a year. Third quarter earnings that came in above expectations, beat those below expectations by a ratio of 6-to-1. Admittedly, earnings estimates in Q3 were conservative, and employment will remain weak for a time, but recent data does suggest some economic improvement.
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