James Picerno submits: Today’s update on retail sales for January shows that the annual change in consumer spending has returned to pre-crisis levels in terms of 12-month rolling changes. In fact, the 4.7% increase in retail sales over its year-ago level as of last month is quite a bit better compared with the trend in early 2008. But like so many other measures of economic and financial activity, the return to levels that pre-date the financial crisis that swept through the markets and the global economy starting in September 2008 is only half the battle, and arguably the lesser part.
On a monthly basis, January’s 0.5% rise in retail sales (seasonally adjusted) is middling relative to recent history. Of course, any news of higher spending is welcome in the current climate, i.e., the ongoing weakness in the labor market. It could easily have been a lot worse.
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