Ralph Shell submits: The last rally the dollar had versus the yen was sponsored by the Non-Farm Payroll report, showing fewer job loses than anticipated, and indications that the Finance Minister was urging the Bank of Japan to increase the money supply. This move has stalled short of the 91 level.
As the evidence continues to grow that the global recession has ended, the yen, because of its perceived safety, becomes less attractive. Yesterday's report that Chinese exports has surged in February to 46% above last year's levels confirms their recovery is progressing. Today we get a number of Chinese reports, including Industrial production, forecasted to be up 19.5% and retail sales up an amazing 18.3% from year ago numbers. As one of China's biggest trading partners, Japan will benefit from the increased activity, but their recovery seems to be lagging.
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