The private forecasting firm AccuWeather predicts an “extreme” Atlantic hurricane season in 2010, and if true, that could have a significant impact on energy prices this summer.

In fact, AccuWeather says 2010 will look a lot like 2008 in terms of hurricane activity. In 2008, there were 17 storms big enough to get a name – the biggest was Hurricane Ike, which killed nearly 200 people and did more than $6 billion in damage as it tore through Haiti and flattened Galveston Island, Texas.

Markets seem to be waiting for some type of catalyst to determine the direction of the next leg. It was an inside day in Crude oil as prices hover around $82/barrel. For new entries we still like the idea of $5 put spreads, but we would start looking at the June as opposed to May contract. If currently in the May, we would try to buy back the bottom leg; we have suggested for clients to buy back their $70 puts and that would leave them long the $75 puts. It was a disappointing day for longs in natural gas as yesterday could prove to be just a head fake. Clients remain long via April futures and June call spreads as prices were off 2.4% today.

As of this post, indices are at the high of the day; we think we are close to an inflection point but we’ve been wrong for the past two weeks. If the S&P closes above 1148, exit short futures at a loss. It's been a fourth consecutive down day in sugar but we are assuming yesterday’s low at 18.82 in May will serve as support. May cotton has lost 3.8% in the last 5 session and closed below the 20 day moving average for the first time since February 8th. We are expecting another 2-4 cents and will then be advising clients to lift shorts.

• BP feels divine about Brazil. BP (BP) made its first foray into Brazil today with a deal to pay $7B for a group of assets held by Devon Energy (DVN). The deal also covers assets in the Gulf of Mexico and Azerbaijan. Devon and BP will also form a heavy oil joint venture to develop BP's Kirby oil sands in Canada. This is the latest divestiture for Devon, which is undergoing a "strategic repositioning," while BP's entrance into Brazil lets it "add a major position in another attractive deep-water basin." Premarket: BP +0.2%, DVN +1.6% (7:00 ET).
• Watchdog warns on possible GMAC losses. In a new report, the Congressional Oversight Panel warns the U.S. is facing the possibility of billions of dollars in losses on its GMAC investment because the Treasury doesn't have a clear exit strategy. Elizabeth Warren, the panel's chairwoman, said the Treasury invested more than $17B in GMAC without giving alternatives much consideration, and that a strategic bankruptcy would have resulted in a more stable company. As things stand, "more than a year has elapsed since the government first bailed out GMAC, and it is long past time for taxpayers to have a clear view of the road ahead."
• Psychiatric Solutions in talks to sell itself. Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) is reportedly in talks to be acquired by private-equity firm Bain Capital. A possible price tag for the deal couldn't be determined, but sources say Psychiatric Solutions is angling for a 25% premium to its current market price and any deal would include the assumption of Psychiatric Solutions's $1.2B of outstanding debt. Though the talks are said to be at an advanced stage, it will likely be another week before there's a deal announcement. Shares climbed 21.3% in yesterday's trading.
• Fewer losses for airlines. The International Air Transport Association halved its loss forecast for 2010 to $2.8B from the $5.6B forecast in December 2009. A recovery in demand has gotten much stronger in the past few months, and unchanged capacity is producing some yield improvements. The IATA also lowered its 2009 loss estimate to $9.4B from $11B.
• Citigroup's Pandit sees brighter future. Speaking to investors later today, Citigroup's (C) Vikram Pandit is expected to detail a more profitable future for the company. Though sources say Pandit won't provide a specific profit target for Citicorp, the company's core wholesale and retail banking unit, he will estimate that Citicorp could earn a yearly return of 1.25% or more on its assets. With those assets expected to grow around 5%/year, that means Citicorp could earn around $20B by the end of 2012. In comparison, Citicorp had net income of $14.7B in 2009 while Citigroup lost $8.7B because of struggling non-core businesses. Premarket: C +0.5% (7:00 ET).
• Peltz eyes CKE Restaurants bid. Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management, the owner of Wendy's/Arby's Group (WEN), is reportedly considering a bid for CKE Restaurants (CKR), the owner of Carl's Jr. and Hardee's. Last month, CKE agreed to be bought by private-equity firm THL Partners for $928M, but said it would actively seek better offers until April 6.
• Connecticut gets moody over false ratings. Connecticut's attorney general is suing Moody's (MCO) and S&P (MHP) over their ratings of risky investments. AG Richard Blumenthal claims the firms "violated public trust" by knowingly providing false ratings on investments that subsequently pushed the country into a recession. Blumenthal is seeking penalties and fines that could total hundreds of millions of dollars.
• IPO coming for Chicago exchange? Sources say the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the world’s last major member-owned exchange, will file with regulators today for an initial public offering. Estimates of what the exchange is worth vary from $1.3B to $5B.
• Terra Industries changes its mind. Terra Industries (TRA) said CF Industries' (CF) $4.7B takeover offer is indeed superior to the $4.1B offer Terra previously accepted from Yara International. Yara has until March 17 to match or improve on CF's offer before its deal with Terra is terminated and it receives a $123M breakup fee, but Yara has signaled in the past its unwillingness to engage in a bidding war. Terra's reversal is also bad news for Agrium (AGU) which has been pursuing CF for more than a year. If CF moves forward with a takeover of Terra, it will create a company larger than Agrium is prepared to pursue.
• Fairholme offers to buy GGP shares. Fairholme Capital Management offered to buy around $2.8B worth of shares from General Growth Properties (GGP) to facilitate GGP's exit from bankruptcy. Assuming the proposal is accepted, and counting previous commitments made by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Pershing Square Capital Management, GGP will have more than $6.5B of committed equity capital.
• Credit market stages a comeback. The credit market is showing renewed signs of life as companies begin aggressively borrowing once again. Bond sales in the U.S. are on pace for their busiest week since the beginning of the year, and Europe is experiencing a similar resurgence. To date, U.S. firms have issued $195.2B of debt this year (vs. $166.8B in the same period in 2009) and risk premiums are falling.
• Google close to wrapping up China talks. "Something will happen soon," is how Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt characterized the company's negotiations with China. Since threatening to shut its China offices two months ago following a cyber-attack, Google has said very little about the progress of talks with Chinese officials. Schmidt's optimistic but vague comments, however, were enough to help push the stock up 2.9% yesterday.
• Weaker growth in Japan. Japan's Q4 GDP growth was revised down to +0.9% from +1.1%. The downward revision, which was larger than economists had expected, was partly due to smaller growth in capital expenditure than had previously been reported.
• Bill Gates' slimmer net worth makes him No. 2 wealthiest. Mexico's Carlos Slim overtook Bill Gates as the world's richest individual, with a fortune valued at $53.5B. Bill Gates came in at No. 2, and Warren Buffett took third place.

Earnings: Thursday Before Open

• Smithfield Foods (SFD): FQ3 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.9B (-14%) vs. $3.3B. (PR)

Earnings: Wednesday After Close

• Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE): Q4 EPS of -$0.03 beats by 0.01. Revenue of $42M (+49.1%) vs. $40M. Shares +3.5% AH. (PR, earnings call transcript)

Today's Markets

• In Asia, Nikkei +1% to 10665. Hang Seng +0.1% to 21228. Shanghai +0.1% to 3051. BSE +0.4% to 17168.
• In Europe at midday, London -0.4% to 5619. Paris -0.4% to 3928. Frankfurt flat at 5935.
• Futures: Dow -0.15%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.07% to $82.15. Gold -0.26% to $1106.30.

Thursday's Economic Calendar

• 8:30 Trade Balance
  8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
  10:00 Quarterly Services Report
  10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
  1:00 PM 30-Yr Bond Auction
  4:30 PM Money Supply
  4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
• Notable earnings before Thursday's open: IMAX, JTX, SFD
• Notable earnings after Thursday's close: ARO, GG, KOG, NSM, PLL, ZQK

Seeking Alpha editors Eli Hoffmann and Jason Aycock contributed to this post.